Future Dilemma?

[Captgrumps]

Appears to be in the works. Not so for Champ, Chiefs, Cubs & Taylorcraft types, but the older, rare, one of a kind round engine types. Most of the older antiques are now owned by the older generation that either could afford them or had the ability to restore them.

The new generations are shying away from aviation due to government regulaltions and the way the world turns with electronics, computers, blackberries and etc. As these owner go West the market for these aircraft is becoming very limited--what ws once thought to be a monitary prize many times go to the OBO (best offer). I have witnessed it--unfortunately many of the current owners still breathing have failed to realize there is now a limited market for their product and are offended when lower prices are offered.

In my 76 years I have seen the saving of these gems from scrap heaps, the high light of them and now receeding value to everyone except the current owner. The last bastion of these airplanes are places like Blakesburg, etc., (OSH has less each year) they continue to be swapped, sold and traded amoungst the breatheren and very few newbies.

Just my two cents, comments always welcome.

Doug

[joea]

Doug,

Do not disagree and do not see much improvement on this in the near future.

For that matter, am really concerned about kids getting into aviation period as the damm TSA and other "knee jerk" reaction people are fencing up any and all airports so there is no way that they can get close to an airplane.

Hope it gets better but very happy that I am where I am at right now and not coming up the ranks. Its really time to support the AOPA and such as I feel that they are the only ones protecting us.

Joe A

[Nathan K. Hammond]

I see it from the younger generation's view... and there are 2 issues.

First is money; old airplanes cost a sh_t load these days. Stearman's that go for $115k, Waco's are $150k, a Fleet or Great Lakes are $75k. So which do I spend money on; a house or an airplane. Even my Champ cost DOUBLE today what I spent 14 years ago.

The second issue falls directly on the current owners. Because the cost involved has made Antiques such an elite society there's really no way to break in unless you're born into, buy into, or INVITED in.

So as a current owner what are we doing to invite the younger generation? Do you have them wash the airplane and in turn offer a ride? That doesn't work because it draws on the devotees that will do absolutely anything to get into aviation no matter what. To attract a broader range of candidates and increase the numbers You need to let the younger generation fly the airplane, pure and simple. And I'm not saying, let them hold the stick for 20 minutes; no, you need to give them a checkout in the airplane so they can fly it themselves. I understand there is a substantial risk involved in loaning your priceless rare antique airplane out to the hands of a 20-30 something year old, but that's what needs to happen. (This exact scenario happened when I was 21. A buddy gave me a key to his Bucker Jungmann and said fly it all I want, whenever I want. We have an agreement that I'll cover all the cost (fuel/oil/insurance) and I help with all the maintenance and any upgrades we see fit. Now 8 years later, if I ever come across a Bucker I can afford, I'll scoop it up because I appreciate that airplane and the 80hrs I've put on it.)

Doug, look at the local flying crowd: who has flown the square tail stearmans? or the Davis? or the C195's? or the Tiger Moth? Only the owners. So how am I, some 20 yr/old kid who drives a Cub/Champ/C120 suppose to appreciate these old airplanes (to the point I'm willing to save/borrow $100k) if the only way I'll ever get to fly them is if I own them?

And yes, I'll let just about anyone qualified fly my airplanes. I only have one requirement other than the obvious like 'can you fly a taildragger;' You have the mechanical ability or the financial resources to rebuild my airplane if you prang it.

...I am really concerned about kids getting into aviation period as the damm TSA and other "knee jerk" reaction people are fencing up any and all airports so there is no way that they can get close to an airplane.

Joe, you have a gate key don't you?

Sorry for the rant, it's a touchy subject.

nkh

[kyleb]

I see it from the younger generation's view... and there are 2 issues.

First is money; old airplanes cost a sh_t load these days. Stearman's that go for $115k, Waco's are $150k, a Fleet or Great Lakes are $75k. So which do I spend money on; a house or an airplane. Even my Champ cost DOUBLE today what I spent 14 years ago.

The second issue falls directly on the current owners. Because the cost involved has made Antiques such an elite society there's really no way to break in unless you're born into, buy into, or INVITED in.

<snip>

Sorry for the rant, it's a touchy subject.

nkh

It shouldnt' be a touchy subject, what you stated is fact. Antiques are rare and expensive. It isn't 1964 (the year of my birth) anymore, with Stearman that could be picked up for next to nothing sitting idle on every duster strip across the US. And sitting in the weeds behind the Stearman, the rotting hulks of the Waco's and Travel Airs that preceeded the Stearman. All of those airframes either went to the scrapper or have been restored by old airline guys and others who were fascinated by flight as kids. And those guys treasure their airplanes and understand what they are worth. To them, they aren't just inanimate objects, they are the owners' pride and joy. So 20-somethings need not apply to fly 'em.. I'm the same way with my wife.

A big problem for avaition as a whole is that nobody under the age of 40 (Nate and a bare handfull of others excepted) is enamored with flying. For whatever reason, after Apollo (or thereabouts) flying lost its glamour and the younger generation has moved to other interests - probably stuff that doesn't require the time or financial committment flying does. Shoot, I've been the youngest pilot/owner at my home field and the youngest guy in my EAA chapter for going on 15 years now. Its pitiful.

If the original poster's premise that there is no younger generation to carry the antiques forward, what we'll see is a decline in value of the old airplanes, meaning maybe I can buy one. Personally, I'm hoping the Davis Nate mentioned comes up for sale at a great price some day. That has to be the most beautiful airplane I've ever seen. Which is why my RV uses a derivation of its paint scheme. I'm partial to older Wacos too, so if y'all come across one at a give away price, let me know.

Kyle

[Captgrumps]

Some missed my point--as the owners of these antiques go West the price is going to have to fall--most family don't want them and usually want to turn them into "cash"--Many family members could care less about flying nowadyas with the regulations, TSA, Class B's, Transponders and etc. On top of that there aren't many people left that can maintain them. We see t hat on the Aeronca site with the questions asked. A couple of Nathan's excepted when it comes to antiques. By the way an oldtimer told me once that Stearmans were made to teach elephants to fly. {;>)

Doug

[MikeB]

While I get your point Doug, I don't know that the price is going to fall (that much) on the Stearmans, Waco's, etc. I think the law of price and demand will take care of that. There will probably always be those that can afford a $100,000+ airplane, million dollar boat or a $800,00 house and are willing to pay the price whatever it is. However, they will probably stay out of the affordable range of the average joe who is worried about paying the morgage, getting the kids through college and buying a new car or pickup every now and then. I suspect most of us on this forum are probably in the latter catagory.

But lets face it, flying and aircraft ownership in particular, is an expensive hobby unless you have the means to write it off some way. When you factor in the cost of the aircraft, plus rountine maintenance, insurance, hangar rental, biennial flight reviews, medicals, annual inspections, transponder checks, etc. etc. you can see why some chose to spend their 'liquid funds' elsewhere. Those are some of the reasons I sold my Cherokee which I loved dearly but just couldn't justify owning in addition to my Champ. Of course most people I know think that only 'rich folks (that's you and me ) can afford an airplane even if it is a $25,000 Cherokee or a $15,000 Champ. Yet they think nothing about spending $35,000 on a new car or truck which will lose a considerable value in 5 years. On the other hand, ours are hidden costs to most people unless they own an aircraft themselves.

As I was at the airport yesterday putting the mower away for the winter someone flew over in a Stearman. I thought, 'Man, if only......... .

MikeB

[kyleb]

As I was at the airport yesterday putting the mower away for the winter someone flew over in a Stearman. I thought, 'Man, if only......... .

MikeB

Winter? Heck, it was 94 here (near Atlanta) today. Of course, the days are getting shorter, which makes it hard for me to get any outdoor work or flying done after work.

[Al Hatz]

As I was at the airport yesterday putting the mower away for the winter someone flew over in a Stearman. I thought, 'Man, if only......... .

MikeB

That was the McMahans from Wausau. The Wisconsin AAA had a lunch over at Hurlburt's (Durand). I didn't see anyone around Strum when I went by or I might have stopped in.

As for the market in old airplanes and airplanes in general, there's no denying we're losing pilots at an alarming rate. I look for a drop in the high end antiques but not dramatic. Nobody is going to use them as investments like they did starting around twenty years ago. Cubs values have been over inflated for the past twenty years also so I expect to see a market correction there also. I'm talking J-3's here; PA-11's, PA-12's and Super Cubs always seem to be in demand. I think Champs, Chiefs, Luscombes etc. will hold their own with maybe a moderate increase in value from here on out.

[jc pacquin]

I'm 74. I used to ride my bike to the airport at 10 years, watch planes land, etc. (3 of us sometimes) My parents called a pal from town who had flown B-25's in the war and was flying a Staggerwing and a Stinson for a local big shot. He took me for a ride and I was hooked. Today, the average kid who rides to the airport, cannot get in, certainly cannot get near an airplane! As for a ride, I would be VERY hesitant to give a young person a ride due to the "Sue EM!" mentality of the populous. Of the airports I've been around in the last 20 years, (small, country airports) VERY few kids even show up, almost none. The youngin who used to wash airplanes and fuel them for lessons seems to be long gone. Computers, drugs and Tv seem to be the current attractions. Many good points have been made on this site! I just think young people have other interests and the government, especially right after 9-11 has made it very difficult to continue. Plus...I paid 35,000 for my Stearman and thought it was alot of money! I don't think theres a 220 HP Stearman flying worth 100,000.00 much less a stripped champ for 90,000.00. (Only my humble views.) JP

[Captgrumps]

Mike the prices will fall--I know of Stearman right now that the owner says make me an offer, I got to get rid of something. And there is an other biplane on the market that the owner is dreaming and eventually take 1/2 to 2/3 what he is asking which puts it in the early Cessna 182 range. As far as write offs--in my 57 years of some type aircraft ownership I have always paid for them fixed them up and never written them off. So I could be self sufficient early on, I got my A&P and 10 years later my IA. Very little spam can work--basically only when I owned one (Cessna 180's and one 182) always wood, dope and fabric, something they don't teach now in those advertised schools. I bought my first Stearman in 1966 for $6500. First Stinson SM-8A for $5500 in 1968 (a fortune--2nd mortgage on house)--sold the Stearman for $7500 after a repaint and sheetmetal work. A Cub in 1970 for $2500 needing a recover. First Aeronca well worn 65CA in 1953 for $200--needed wing trailing edge work. The real antique follower/owners are getting thinner as I type--copy this paste it on your wall and keep your eye out for the OBO ads. If interested, when one comes available make sure you have your cookie jar ready or have a standing with a good banker. Just hangaring and maintaining one of these antiques, unless you have the facilities and know how can get real expensive. The ability to do your own maintenanace and annuals is almost imperative unless you have unlimited funds. Just my two cents and will leave it at that.

Doug

[Paul Agaliotis]

I don't think the cost of flying is the problem. There is no attraction for the younger folk. If you go to a fly-in it's geared for the senior crowd. The dinner/dance will be some kind of big band era or 50's music. Now, before you throw your Geritol bottles into the street, I like that type of music. But someone in their 20's can't tell Elvis from a Mr. Potatohead. If we can all be more tolerant we can bring them back. Times are changing and the world of aviation needs to change as well. I'm not saying the next NAA convention needs a mosh pit but the needs of the youngsters has to be heard.
I tell all of the kids that the best value in aviation is the pre-war Chief. It's a great flyer and can be had at bargain prices. There are others I'm sure. I'm always on the lookout for parts and projects many of which would be tossed out if they were not purchased.
Paul

[joea]

Nathan,

I do have a gate key but then I am already a pilot. Its the young kids that are standing outside the fence that concerns me.

The local airport restaurant almost always has kids on the eating side who want to go out past the fence and see/touch an airplane.

Lots of times when I am finished flying I taxi over to the restaurant and grab lunch, then taxi back to the hangar. If there are any kids outside who are looking at the planes I try to take them out and let them look over, sit in, and touch a real airplane. Thats 1000% more than they get stuck on the outside of the fence.

So far none of them have been old enough to get close to the "teaching to fly" area so just letting them see/feel the plane is all I can do. As well I am not a CFI so legally I cannot teach them.

I want to help as much as possible but keeping our young holding outside the fence is not helping aviation one bit.

Joe

[Carl Prather]

Joe,

I agree with you entirely about the fence thing. To me, fences scream "stay out we don't want you here" to a kid. That's why air shows, open houses and airport days are so important. Whatever avenues we can use to promote flying we should certainly should take advantage.

Flying is still cool and liberating. No one can take that away from us. This enthusiasm is bound to rub off and we all know what to do about that.

Carl Prather

[Al Hatz]

Carl Prather

Carl,
Sent you a message.

Al

[Captgrumps]

Paul, agree, the pre-war Chief is the best buy out there and the best Chief. I have owned both and the post war flys like a sled compared to the prewar. Working now on putting a C85 on a prewar. Nothing new it has been done before. In fact my current prewar is certified as a S-65-C. Originally born as a 1939 50C.

Doug